An Assessment on the Impacts Population Increase on Local Community Social Economic Live hood. A Case Study of Mtwara-Mikindani Municipality
STELLA MARIS MTWARA UNIVERSITY
COLLEGE
(Constituent college of St. Augustine University of Tanzania)
FACULTY OF EDUCATION
An
Assessment on the Impacts Population Increase on Local Community Social
Economic Live hood. A Case Study of Mtwara-Mikindani Municipality
JUMANNE FATUMA
STE/BAED/162696
phone
No:0656737935
CHAPTER ONE
1.0 General
introduction
This chapter consists of background
of the study, statement of the problem, objectivesof thestudy; research
questions, significance of the study, scope of the study and definitions of the
key terms.
1.1
Background of the Study.
According to the
United Nations, world population reached 8. 7 billion on October 2014.The top ten most populous countries include
China, India, United States, Indonesia, Brazil, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nigeria,
Russia and Japan. According to United Nations report of 2014, Africa is the
most second-most populated continent, with around 1 billion people, or 15% of
the world’s population .Based on 2012 national census (United Republic of
Tanzania, 2013), 56 countries make up the continent of Africa and while
population growth is relatively low in some areas, countries such as Nigeria
and Uganda are increasing at an advanced rate.
According to UN
report,2014 ,explained that most of the African Countries experience the
excesspopulalation of 2% every year. In addition, there are a high proportion
of younger people within the Africa population as a whole and the life
expectancy is also low – less than 50 in many nations. This has reduced
considerably over the course of the last twenty years with a wide spread HIV
and AIDS epidemic taking much of the blame for that statistic. Infant mortality
is also extremely high and in African countries including Tanzania, it is
reported that there are 190 deaths per 1,000 live births (UN report, 2014). All
of these statistics could be expected to lead to a fall in population numbers
but in Africa, the issue over family planning leads to the reverse effect.
Population
growth and the resultant human activities have been viewed as generating
pressures to the natural resource base in general and Contraceptive prevalence
rate ( CPRs) in particular. This statement is demonstrated by, among others,
the rapid decline in vegetation cover, pollution of common water sources, and
increased pressure on traditional grazing areas. Although this view dominates,
different communities have dealt with the management of their CPRs in different
ways. Despite the fact that many local communities has for a long time contributed
to the conservation and protection of CPRs, only recently their importance in
natural resource management and the need for benefit sharing are been
recognized (McNeely and Ness, 1996; URT, 1998a). Analysis of the people’s
perceptions of the socio-economic pressure on coastal forest resource use and
management in Tanzania, for example, show no direct responsibility on the part
of the local communities for the maintenance and protection of the coastal
forests because the local communities do not consider the resources to belong
to them.
The denial of
access to CPRs perpetuates negative perceptions among the local communities
that natural resources are a liability to them rather than an asset. Discussing
the importance of local communities in biodiversity and environmental
conservation, McNeely and Ness (1996) argued for the need to respect, preserve,
and maintain knowledge, innovations, and practices of indigenous and local
communities embodying traditional lifestyles. Efforts to put this approach into
practice in Tanzania are getting momentum, though still at a very limited leve
Recent trends
have shown diminishing trends in CPRs due to population pressure and the
various human actions. Large areas of land, forests, mineral deposits,
wildlife, and water resources have been depleted, leading to serious
environmental problems. Similarly, various resource use conflicts have emerged
and are, to a larger extent, triggered by population pressure, and the neglect
of the local communities’ interests in the CPR management strategies. This
complementary relationship between humans and CPRs necessitates consideration
of the end user of the CPRs in any discussion of resource management issues.
For a long time
the Tanzanian government has considered itself the sole manager of all natural
resources obtainable in the country. This is in total contradiction to policy
documents and statements which state that the government holds the natural
resources in trust (CIEL, 2002). The concept of trust assumes that the trustee
is supposed to manage the said property in the best interests of the
beneficiary until such time the beneficiaries are capable of managing their
property themselves. However, for the government, this self-evident truth has
always been equated to total ownership because the policies and laws of the
country do not define what trust means, the functions of the trustee and the
obligations of the trustee to the beneficiary.
This paper
discusses how population pressure and policy changes have influenced changes in
the CPRs in the rural setting, and how local people’s lifestyles are being
molded by population pressure, changes in the CPR accessibility as influenced
by changing land uses and the emergence of new economic opportunities like
mining at the local level. Using the case of Mabuki and Maganzo villages in
Mwanza and Shinyanga regions, respectively, the paper demonstrates that various
demographic and policy changes that have occurred over time have had
implications on the nature and extend of CPR accessibility and use patterns.
The paper argues that the expansion of agriculture activities and emergence of
mining activities that has expended into the traditional grazing and farming
areas, has to a larger extent affected accessibility of local communities to
their CPRs at the local level.
The link between
population pressure and CPRs could be traced back to Malthus1 in 1798 who
argued that there are diminishing returns to additional labour to land (Wilber,
1978). Malthus viewed population increase to cause declines in agricultural
output and impoverishment of land resources. Boserup looked at population
pressure as a driving force towards intensive land uses and technological
change (Boserup, 1965). She viewed population pressure as a force that
stimulates adoption of new techniques that enable more frequent cultivation,
hence, greater output. In Boserup’s views increased population pressure is an
impelling force to agricultural intensification. However, the Boserup
hypothesis has been criticized for failing to consider the effects of
inadequate public policy on agricultural development. Hardin (1968) argued that
as the population grows and resources decline, the commons collapses and ends
in "the tragedy of the commons".
The increase in
population may lead to expansion of farm lands, decline of grazing land, and
conflicting resource uses emerge. As a result, the impacts on the common
resource poor increases in the form of deforestation, land fragmentation,
overgrazing, water scarcity and land degradation. Such features reduce the
carrying capacity of the land and the capability of the CPRs to meet the needs
of the present and future population. Different policies affect farming systems
and the impact is aggravated by population pressure, leading to degradation of
common property resources including land at the local level.
Evidence from
Machakos (Kenya) seem to suggest that population pressure in an agricultural
areas stimulates changes in farming and income generating systems and reverse
the degradation process towards sustainable resource management (Tiffen et.al,
1994). Yet the World Bank views population pressure as a major hindrance to
economic development and a cause of environmental damage (World Bank, 1989).
These contradicting views necessitate a closer look into the linkages between
population dynamics and natural resource conservation, including CPRs at the
micro-level.
Human beings use
the environment in three basic ways: as a resource bank – the environment
supplies them with raw materials needed to maintain their existence, and their
social and technological structures; as a habitat – people require more space
per individual than any other species; and as a sink for wastes – human beings
produce more waste than other species. It should be emphasized that population
concerns are central to the sustainability of CPRs, because the more people
there are on the earth, the greater the impact on the environment and pressures
on the CPRs. The increasing population pressure on common property resource at
the household and community levels could be demonstrated by the rate of land
fragmentation, deforestation, and land use conflicts, especially between
agriculture on the one hand, and livestock keeping and mining on the other.
These features
demonstrate a significant deterioration of the common property resource pool.
For example, the rapid technological change in Kwimba District from the hand
hoe to an ox-plough and tractors led to increased capacity to cultivate and
increased demand for arable land. Consequently, agricultural expansion has been
directed to areas that were traditionally used for communal grazing. It can
therefore be argued that population pressure is a driving force to diminish
CPRs and increased resource use conflicts at the local level.
Urbanisation in
Tanzania, as in many other African countries, is proceeding apace – but with
mixed results. Urbanisation can bring both benefits and costs. The benefits
should include more varied and better employment opportunities with higher
productivity, better housing and basic services, a wider choice of goods and
other services and generally a better standard of living (e.g. World Bank,
2009); however, there can also be costs: congestion, overcrowding, lack of
resources to provide basic services, health hazards and more crime (e.g. Davis,
2007). Unfortunately, in many African countries the costs have, to date, tended
to outweigh the benefits. Urbanisation has not been the strong driver of growth
that it has been in parts of Asia, for example.
Tanzania
has the total population of 44, 928, 923 million of people in Tanzania, the
Population growth (annual %) in Tanzania was last measured at 3.03 in 2013,
according to the World Bank. Mtwara region is among of the regions in Tanzania
which is rapidly growing in economic infrastructures including Dangote Cement
industry which attract people to come in and hence to increase in the
population of the area. Apart from
biological or natural population increase the region is experiencing rapid
population growth specifically in MtwaraMikindani Municipality due exploration
of oil and extraction of the natural gas. Since population change might exert
changes in various grounds or setting. Due to national census of 2012
population growth of MtwaraMikindani Municipal the population was rapid
population growth than any other parts of southern zone of Tanzania.
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The relationship between Population
growth and socio-economic development is contemporary population situation in
many African countries contribute to detract from their chances of realizing
the goals of development, not only for the current generation but also for the
future generation. Smith,(2000) socio economic advance (increase literacy and
lower infant mortality) and higher levels of development, economic growth, per capita income) stimulates family
planning program effort which in turn
helps to meet the evolving demand for contraception and enhance the progress of the contemporary
developing nations through fertility transitions.
According
to URT,(2008) Some of people have no
education and qualifications to be employed in different sectors especially
whose which need high knowledge and skills for example teaching, engineering,
and being a doctor need some special skills to perform effectively, Health is
the complete physical, mental and social well being. There are several health
problems which can cause a person not to be employed in a certain sector. For
example the state of being affected by HIV/AIDS can cause a person to be
rejected to be given a job opportunity, cripples and other disable people may
lose some certain jobs because of nature of their physical fitness. For
instance it may become impossible employ a bled person or a cripple to
supervise the heavy engineer works like the construction of bridges and
building. The study on the relationship been
population growth and socio-economic development aimed at identifying the
outcome of the population growth in MtwaraMikindani municipality.
1.2 Statement of the problem
The
country is trying to deal with the problems associated with the population
increases in order to boost the economic development of its people but still
the problems associated with the population growth are existing, so this study
will confirm itself in investigating the extent that the government can use
population data to find out the solutions of the economic problems so as to
boost national development.
1.3 Objectives of
the Study
The study will
constitute the following objectives.
1.3.1 General objective
To assess the impacts population increase on
local community social economic livehoodin Mtwara-Mikindani municipality.
1.3.2 Specific objectives
i.
To identify the causes of population
growth on socio-economic development in MtwaraMikindani Municipality.
ii.
To find out the effects to the problem
of population growth on socio-economic development in MtwaraMikindani
Municipality
iii.
To establish some possible solutions to
the problem on the relationship between population growth and social economic
development in MtwaraMikindani Municipality.
1.4 Research
Questions
i.
What are the causes of population growth and social economic
development in Mtwara -Mikindani municipality?
ii.
What are the effects of population
growth on social economic development in Mtwara-Mikindani Municipality?
iii.
What are the proposed solutions to
balance the population growth and social economic development in Mtwara
–Mikindani Municipality?
1.5 Significance
of the study
Any
research is beneficial to certain members of the society this study will be
beneficial to the society especially those dealing with population matters such
as
(i)
To the researcher: The researchers will get new knowledge from the respective
area of study and be one of the people who will be useful in the society in the
matters concerning to population growth and the economy of the country.
(ii) To the government: The study will help the government to
review economic policies that will go hand by hand with the growth of
population in the country so as to enhance the national development to its
people .
(iii)To the society. The study will help
the society in the family planning issues so as to match with the speed of the
changes of the technology in the word as well to reduce the cost of life and
reducing poverty.
(iv). To policy makers; The study will
help them to review the economic policies that are to be improved or maintained
in order to facilitate the applicability of the economic policies in the real
life situation with respect to population growth.
1.6 Scope of the
Study
This study will
be conducted in Mtwara Municipality in two wards namely Shangani and Rahaleo
wards this due to available time which
as well as easy accessibility of the places so this will help the
researcher in data collection process . The study time will be bound ranged
from the year 2017 to 2018 with the emphasis at assessing the relationship
between population growth and socio economic development in MtwaraMikindani
Municipality.
1.7 Definition to
Key Terms
Population
growth: Refers to the change in population over time, and
can be quantified as the
Change
in the number of individuals in a population using "per unit
time" for
measurement.
1.8 Limitation of the study.
The
study will be limited by the following problems;
(i) Financial
problem; During the research the
researcher may face problem associated by money in the field especially for
transport, motivation to the respondents and also printing materials work
needed money. In order to solve this problem the researcher will reduce the
targeted po
(iii)Time problem; The researcher may be limited by the
time allocated to accomplish the report.
CHAPTER TWO
LITERATURE
REVIEW
2.0 Introduction
This chapter will deal
the related literature review, theoretical theories and research gap. Through
reading the related materials concern with the
relationship between population and social economic development, all
that will explain by these follows scholars under this chapter will consist of
related literature review, theatrical frame work and research gap .
2.1Theoretical
Framework
Theoretical framework
refers to a group
of related ideas
that provides
guidance to a researchproject.
The appropriateness
of a theoretical framework that a marketingdepartment
is using
to promote
its corporate and product image
to the consuming
public can be an important determinant
of its ultimate success(http://www.businessdictionary.com 3:34pm November 18,2015)
Malthus Theory
Thomas Robert Malthus (1766-1834) was the key figure to analyze the population statistics. His formulation on population was a landmark in the history of population theories. He generalized the relationship between population factors and social change.
In his Essay on the Principle of Population (1798) Malthus argued that because of the strong attraction of the two sexes, the population could increase by multiples, doubling every twenty-five years. He contended that the population would eventually grow so large that food production would be insufficient.
Human capacity for reproduction exceeded the rate at which subsistence from the land can be increased. Malthus further wrote ‘Population when unchecked increases in a geometrical ratio. Subsistence increases only in an arithmetical ratio.’
Malthus contended that the world’s population was growing more rapidly than the available food supply. He argued that the food supply increases in an arithmetic progression (1, 2, 3, 4, and so on), whereas the population expands by a geometric progression (1, 2, 4, 8, and so on).
According to him, the population could increase by multiples, doubling every twenty-five years. He said the gap between the food supply and population will continue to grow over time. Even though food supply will increase, it would be insufficient to meet the needs of expanding population. Moreover, the famine and other natural calamities cause widespread sufferings and increase the death rate, which is nature’s check against population.
Population Theory
Malthus
(1798) stated that, the populations of the world would increase in geometric
proportions while the food resources available for them would increase only in
arithmetic proportions.
In simple words as soon as human population would feel constraints in food
supply due to increase in population also work hard to provide enough for his
family. This might lead to an increase in agricultural production to provide
for all so that to increase economic development, but at the same time man
would be back to his complacent stage, where all his needs would be fulfilled.
A point would come when human population would reach the limit up to which food
sources could support it. Any further increase would lead to population crash
caused by natural phenomena like famine or disease.
Michael Thomas Sadler’s
Destiny Theory:
Michael Thomas Sadler, an Economist
and a British social reformer, was born in 1780. He was a contemporary of Malthus.
He expressed his ideas about population in his book The Law of Population.
According to Sadler, the law which regulates the growth of animals and plants
is primarily the same as the law which regulates the growth of human
population.
He was of the opinion that “The
fecundity of human beings is in the inverse ratio of the condensation of their
numbers.”
Moreover, the fertility rate
decreases with the increase in the density of population. In the agriculture
based or pastoral countries where the density of population is low, the
fertility rate of the population becomes high. In such countries, people have
the capacity to work hard and hardworking people give birth to more children.
With the passing of time, when there
is industrialization and the population becomes more civilized and literate,
the density of population increases. Here people would limit the size of family
and in such socio-economic conditions they will be happier and there will be
prosperity.
Sadler was a great critic of
Malthus. He did not accept Malthus’s view that population increases in
geometrical progression and food supply increases in arithmetical progression.
According to Sadler, such increase of population and food supply in
mathematical terms just cannot happen, because when population increases
density too will increase.
And when density increases, the
capacity to produce children goes down and thus with the increase in density,
the fertility rate declines. He believed that population adjusts itself with
the times.
He did not accept the fear of
Malthus that positive checks by nature take place with the growth of
population. He also did not believe in the preventive measures of birth control
described by Malthus. Sadler was very optimistic and he tried to establish a
link between population and food supply.
He was of the view that if the
fertility rate of population increases, people will be able to produce food
according to their needs and the food supply and population will get adjusted
to each other.
Karl Marx’s Theory of Surplus
Population:
Karl Marx, the famous author of Das Capital, did not propound any specific theory of population like Malthus. However, he rejected the Malthusian theory as completely imaginary and false. He did not accept Malthus’s view that population increases in geometrical progression and means of subsistence in arithmetical progression. Marx’s views about population growth are based on his theory of surplus value.
According to him, the problem of population arises only in a capitalist society which fails to provide jobs to all workers because the supply of labor is more than its demand. As a result, there is surplus population.
But there is no surplus population in a socialist society where the means of production are in the hands of workers. All able bodied workers are employed and there is no surplus labor. So there is no need to check the growth of population in a socialist country.
Capitalism, according to Marx, is divided into two classes – the workers who sell their ‘labor-power’ and the capitalist who own the ‘means of production’ (factories). Labor-power is like any other commodity. The laborer sells his labor for its value. And its value, like the value of any other commodity is the amount of labor that is required to produce labor-power. In other words, the value of labour-power is the value of the means of subsistence (i.e., food, clothing, housing, etc.) necessary for the maintenance of the laborer.
This is determined by the number of hours necessary for its production. But the value of commodities necessary for the subsistence of the laborer is never equal to the value of the produce that laborer produces. If a laborer works for ten hours a day, but it takes him six hours’ labor to produce goods to cover his subsistence, he will be paid wages equal to 6 hours’ labor. The difference worth 4 hours’ labor goes into the capitalist pocket in the form of profit. Marx calls this unpaid work “surplus value”.
According to Marx, this surplus value leads to capital accumulation. The capitalist’s main aim is to increase the surplus value in order to increase his profit. He does so by “the speeding up of labor”, which means increasing the productivity of labor.
When the productivity of labor increases, the laborer produces the same commodity in less hours, say 4 hours, or he produces more (two) commodities, say in 6 hours. This raises the surplus value and hence the capitalist’s profit.
The increase in the productivity of labor requires a technological change that help in increasing total output and lowering the cost of production. He introduces labor-saving machines which increase labor productivity.
This process of replacing labor by machines creates an industrial reserve army which increases as capitalism develops. The industrial reserve army is the surplus population. The larger the industrial reserve army, the larger the surplus population and the worse are the conditions of the employed laborers.
This is because the capitalists can dismiss dissatisfied and troublesome workers and replace them from the ranks of the reserve army. Capitalists are also able to cut down wages to a semi-starvation level and raise more surplus value, while the surplus population increases.
The Marxian theory of surplus population is explained in Fig. 1 where the labor force is taken on the horizontal axis and the wage rate on the vertical axis. DD is the demand curve for labor and SS is the supply curve of labor. At the wage rate OW, there is increase in the industrial reserve army or surplus population equal to RA (=LL1). As the industrial reserve army expands, the capitalists start adopting labor-saving machines in order to increase the surplus value and hence profits.
Consequently, the supply curve of labor SS starts sliding towards the right and becomes horizontal at S1. The capitalists also start reducing the wage rate simultaneously to the minimum subsistence level OM in order to have more surplus value and profits. Now at this wage rate, the horizontal supply curve MS1 equals the demand curve for labor at point E1. Thus at the subsistence wage rate OM the entire working population OL1 becomes the surplus population.
Marx explains his surplus theory of population:
“It is the working population which, while effecting the accumulation of capital also produces the means whereby it is itself rendered relatively superfluous, is turned into a relatively surplus population, and it does so to an ever increasing extent. This is a law of population peculiar to the capitalist method.”
Boserup
theory on population
The origin of Boserup's view has
historical roots in diverse economic and social theory and may be traced to the
work of Smith, Marx, and Durkheim as well. In his well known concept of the
economy of scale, Smith specifies the need for a growing population that will
permit more efficient production through the division of labor.
Boserup stated that successive
change in technology has an important influence on population size. The
opposite side of the interrelationship, the influence of population size on technology,
has attracted less attention (Boserup, 1981). In response, Boserup focus her
attention on exploring the role of population as an independent variable that
influences both the development of agricultural technology which, in turn,
shapes the productive capacity of resources.
Boserup sees sub-Saharan Africa as
historically a sparsely populated continent relative to other world regions. As
result, subsistence agriculture and low-technology, land fallow systems
predominate in the region. As Boserup states: Because past rates of population
growth were much lower in Africa than in other parts of the world, extensive
land-using subsistence systems, that is, long-fallow agriculture and
pastoralist continue to be much more prevalent than elsewhere. In large parts
of Africa, there is more land than the sparse population needs for growing
crops" (Boserup, 1990).
Theory
of social capillarity
This theory was presented by Dumont
(1849-1902) on the basis of his study of the growth of French population.
According to Dumont “The development of number in a nation is in inverse ratio
to the development of individual” In other words as the individual develops,
birth rate decreases. This theory of population according to Dumont applies to
a well developed societies based on rational thinking and idealism. Therefore
the theory of population is directly related to the stage of the growth of a
society. (Sharma, 2007)
2.2 Related literature review
Human
population includes all the people occupied on the planet earth. World population
is currently over 6 billion. By the 2025 world’s population is expected to
increase to about 7.8 billion (Eldon, 2002).
Population
in China
The demographics of the People's Republic of China are identified by a
large population with a relatively small youth division, which is partially a
result of China's one-child policy.
Chinese population reached the billion mark in 1982. China has been the world's
most populous nation for many centuries.
When China took its first post 1949 census in 1953, the population stood
at 583 million; by the fifth census in 2000, the population had more than
doubled, reaching 1.2 billion. By the sixth census in 2010, the total
population had reached to 1,370,536,875.
The
issue of population and economic growth is as old as economics itself. Malthus
(1798) claimed that there is a tendency for the population growth rate to
surpass the production growth rate because population increases at a
geometrical rate while production increases at an arithmetic rate. Population
growth enlarges labor force and, therefore, increases economic growth. A large
population also provides a large domestic market for the economy. Moreover,
population growth encourages competition, which induces technological
advancements and innovations. Nevertheless, a large population growth is not
only associated with food problem but also imposes constraints on the
development of savings, foreign exchange and human resources ( Meier, 1995)
Population
in India
According to the Indian census,
carried out in 2011, the population of India was exactly 1,210,193,422, which
means India has crossed the 1-billion mark. This is the second most populous
country of the world after China and the various studies have projected that
India will be world’s number-1 populous country, surpassing China, by 2025. In
spite of the fact that the population policies, family planning and welfare
programmers undertaken by the Government of India have led to a continuous
decrease in the fertility rate, yet the actual stabilization of population can
take place only by 2050.
India seems to still sustain
economic growth and stability, through growth in a variety of sectors,
agriculture, industrial and the financial structure, India is still attaining
its high rates of economic growth despite the rise in population. This is due
to the low unemployment rates that attach itself to India’s economy. India has
an increasing rate of employment that averages about 1.2% annually. Like its
Asian neighbors, India has a large skilled work force, which, unlike other
Asian nations, is protected by politically powerful unions. India also has an
abundance of white-collar workers to further advance the industrial and
agricultural sector. Almost 70% of the population depend on agriculture and is
rapidly growing. Some economists say that because of India’s abundance of
natural resources, it could feed the whole world for the next 100 years with
the increasing rate of population growth. (pages.cs.wisc.edu/.../rkothare2015,
14:12 March 31, 2016)
Population
in Nigeria
Nigeria has a
growing population and what can also be referred to as an increasing population.
Nigeria is among the ten top countries with the largest population, Nigeria is
the most populous country in Africa and also the most populous among the black
nations of the world. in fact, the seventh among the countries with the largest
population in the world. As of 1 January 2016, the population of Nigeria was
estimated to be 182 307 178 people. This is an increase of 1.94 % (3465943
people) compared to population of 178841235 the year before. (http://countrymeters.info/en/Nigeria: 01:02 April, 2016) Among many other factors causing
unprecedented growth of population in Nigeria is birth rate and this has
affected greatly the growth rate of the population. Compare to many decades
ago, there are better though not adequate medical services and facilities.
Better drugs and immunization services which have reduced greatly infant,
child, maternal and other forms of mortality and consequently high birth rate.
According
toJhingan, (2005). Population growth in any country Nigeria in particular
retards capital formation as population increase whereby per capita available
income decline. People are required to feed more children with the same income.
It means more expenditure on consumption and a further fall in the already low
savings and consequently in the level of investment. Further, a rapidly growing
population by lowering incomes, saving and investment compels the people to use
a low level technology which further retards capital formation. A developing
nation, or any nation, accumulates capital through saving and investing.
A nation must save retain from consumption to
release resources from consumer goods production, The consequences of a rapidly
increasing population are to retard all development efforts in Nigeria unless
accompanied by high rate of capital accumulation and technological progress.
Rapid population growth has economic Social and political effects. It also
interacts with public education, health and welfare, and the quality of the
environment in which people live. Some of the very poorest countries spend much
of their increase in income on a rising population. The gap in income between
rich and many of the very poor countries is not closing. (SCOFSNAS, 1972)
Population of Ghana
The Demography of Ghana describes the condition and overview of Ghana's population. Demographic topics include basic education, health, and population statistics. The demographic features of the population of Ghana, including population density, nationality and citizenship, ethnicity, education level, health of the populace, religious affiliations and other aspects of the population. The population of Ghana is 27,043,093 (http://www.statsghana.gov.gh)
There is a relationship between a
population’s health status and productivity. The healthier the population is
the more likely they are to contribute to the productivity of the nation. The
population is most often threatened by diseases. This means that if the
population is affected by diseases also the production can be affected
(http://www.npc.gov.gh)
Population of Kenya
The trend in
population growth and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Kenya from 1963 to the year
2010, this shows that the trend in population growth in Kenya has been
fluctuating over the years. Population growth in Kenya continues to exert
pressure on land and other resources. High fertility, combined with declining
child mortality, gave Kenya one of the world's fastest population growing
nations, (Kovole, 1998).
There was a
disparity in fertility among rural and urban women which could be attributed to
the significant role played by education in population growth. When literacy of
women improves fertility rates also tend to decrease. Contraceptive use has
increased from 39 percent of married women in 2003 to 56 percent in 2010 (Kenya
National Bureau of Statistics, 2010)
The
relationship between growth in population and growth in per capita income is
clear. After all, per capita income equals total income divided by population.
The growth rate of per capita income roughly equals the difference between the
growth rate of income and the growth rate of population. A slower rate of
population growth, together with the same rate of GDP increase, would have left
Kenya with more impressive gains in per capita income. The implication is that
if the developing countries want to increase their rate of growth of per capita
GDP relative to the developed nations, they must limit their population growth.
But if
economic development can slow population growth, it can also increase it. One
of the first gains a developing nation can achieve is improvements in such
basics as the provision of clean drinking water, improved sanitation, and
public health measures such as vaccination against childhood diseases. Such
gains can dramatically reduce disease and death rates. As desirable as such
gains are, they also boost the rate of population growth. (www.lardbucket.org:18:20, April 2, 2016).
Population growth and its effects. Malthus (1798) proposed
that the boom in population will result into excess of labor force ready to
work at the available wage rate, giving them the income to buy food for their
family. This will lead to an increase in the overall demand for food
outstripping its supply. Hence, the prices will rise and inflation will set in.
This inflationary pressure will worsen the situation of the already distressed
poor section of the society leaving the riches unaffected. The poor will work
more to improve their situation and will also consider reducing the population
growth so that they have less mouth to feed. However, this will only last till
the population equals the food supply and the inflation ceases; after which,
overall standard of living will rise and so will the population explosion
reaching the same point.
Therefore the population growth is
the change in a population over time, and can be quantified as the change in
the number of individuals of any species in a population using “per unit time”
for measurement. To demographers, growth means change in population size, Smith
(2000). This can be influenced by different factors such as accessibility,
trade agriculture, industries and the natural factor which are birthrate and
mortality rate and also migration.
Population growth in Tanzania's crates major environmental
problems which has been classified into
six categories, namely; land
degradation, deforestation, lack of accessible water supply and poor water
quality, environmental pollution, deterioration of aquatic systems and loss of
wildlife habitat and biodiversity (URT, 1994).These concerns are linked
to overuse or misuse of the natural resources base.
In 2002 Tanzania National Census,
the population of Mtwara Urban District was 92,602, (URT,2002). The 2012
Population and Housing Census (PHC) revealed that, the population of Mtwara-
Mikindani Municipality has grown from 92,602 persons in the 2002 census to 108,299
persons counted in 2012 census. According to the 2012 Tanzania National Census,
Mtwara- Mikindani Municipality has a total of 108,299 whereby Male was 51,062
and Female was 57,237. The Average Household size is 3.8 and the Sex Ratio is
89, (National Bureau of Statistics, 2012).
The population of Mtwara Mikindani
Municipality influenced by different factors such as trade, agriculture
activities, and gas & oil that influence economic development.
To sum up, population growth has
great impact to economic, social, environmental and political problems. The
study of population growth is essential tool for setting different goals which
aims at stimulating development to the people and the nation at large. Also
other countries like India, China and Nigeria experience the population growth
and the result of such population growth is seen because China and India are in
good position in social and economic issues but also Nigeria has posses good
economic situation though it faced a internal conflicts that is mostly caused
by the religion interest in some parts especially northern part.
2.3 Research gap.
Research gap is the
missing element in the existing research literature, and you have to fill with
your research approach to make your
manuscript publishable. Also is the gap that you fill with your research
approach, it indicates a finding from a research in which a key question has
not been answered (wikipedia.org August 7:18AM, 2015).
This research proposal view the gap
on the relationship between population growth and socio-economic development
because various researchers have written on the causes and impacts of
population growth, other researcher searched on relationship between fishing
activities and economic grow But this study will investigate in detail on the
relationship between population growth and socio-economic development in
Mtwara-Mikindani municipality
CHAPTER THREE
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
3.0 Introduction
This
chapter will deal with the methodology and design which will be employed in the
study during data collection. Also it will describe the study area, sampling
procedures and sample size. However, it will cover types of data required,
precise data collection techniques, data analysis strategies and the overall limitations
which will be encountered during the study.
3.1 Research
Approaches
Research
approach is a plan and procedure for research that span the steps from broad
assumptions to detailed method of data collection and interpretation (www.sagepub.com.../5558 retrieved on 11th,
April 2016)
The
study will employ qualitative and quantitative research approaches in gathering
the intended data, where as quantitative approach refers to systematic
empirical investigation of observable
phenomena via statistical ,mathematical or numerical data or computational techniques(www.enwikipedia.org/wiki/Quantitative
research/retrieve on22th April,2016 )
Qualitative
approach is multi method in focus, involving an interpretive, naturalistic
approach to its subject matter. This
means that the researcher study things in their natural settings,
attempting to make sense of, or
interpret phenomena in terms of the meanings people bring to them
.Newman and Benz(1990 )
3.2 Geographical
location of the study area.
This refers to the field of investigation into human ecology (www.dictionary.reference.com/area+study
retrieve on 11th April 2016) .The study will be conducted
in Mtwara Mikindani Municipality in Mtwara region, Tanzania. Mtwara is located
in the South-eastern part of Tanzania on the coastal line of Indian Ocean. It lies between Longitude 400 and 410 East
and Latitude 100 and 110 South. The Council is bordered by Indian Ocean in the
East and Mtwara District council in all other directions. The study will be
conducted at Shangani wards in Mtwara Mikindani Municipality in Mtwara region
Tanzania.
3.2.2
Population of the study area
3.3 Sampling
Procedures
Sampling is a process
of obtaining a sample; it is normally done for the purpose of measuring the
elements of population characteristics and making conclusion regarding the
entire population cohen,et al( 2000 :89). Sample is definite in obtaining
representative informants from a given population Mwanje,( 2001).Both random
and purposive sampling will be employed in obtaining the sample. Mostly,
purposive sampling will be used; this will be a non-probability or non-random
sampling that enabled the researcher to select people (respondents) who met
certain requirements which were crucial for the study.
The number of
respondents participated in the study.
Table 1: show the number of respondents
and their percentage.
|
TYPE OF RESPONDENTS |
NO. OF RESPONDENTS |
PERCENTAGES |
|
Immigrant /population officer |
1 |
2 |
|
Parents |
16 |
32 |
|
Students |
12 |
24 |
|
Local community |
20 |
40 |
|
Head of school |
1 |
2 |
|
TOTAL |
50 |
100 |
Source: (field data 2016)
3.3.1
Random Sampling
Random sampling techniques; this is
done randomly where by some pieces of paper were written numbers and other were
unwritten, and then a researcher picked piece of paper that were indicated by
numbers to be considered as the participants. Kothari (2004:60). This technique applied to the students
because it gives respondents equal chance to participate in the research from
the field through interview and questionnaire.
3.3.2
Purposive sampling techniques;
Purposive sampling techniques
allows a research to choose cases that require information with respect to the
objectives of the study, this technique is more appropriate to the research,
for it will allow the researcher to get required information in order to meet
express objective of the study, Kothari (2004).The method is going to be
applied in selecting migrant /population officer and headmaster where by all
these respondents helped the researcher to get relevant information.
3.4 Justification of the sample size
The
saturation of information will be reached after consultation with 50
respondents, in which both sex will be considered. Among of them are parents,
migrant /population officer students, and head of the school, Traders, and local community
3.5. Types of data required
In
order to accomplish objectives of the study, sufficient and relevant
information will be collected. In so doing both primary and secondary data will
be generated. Several data collection techniques (instruments) will be used
because the study is of quantitative and qualitative in its nature.
3.5.1 Primary data
Primary
data are those which are collected a fresh and for the first time and this
happen to be the origin in character Kothari( 2004) .In this study the
researcher will obtain primary data through questioner interview, documentation and
observation technique s. This will help the researcher to get information from to the participants.
3.5.2 Secondary data
The
secondary data are those which have already collected by someone else and which
have already passed through the statistical process, Kothari (2004).Secondary
information will be collected from secondary sources such as books, journals
from various libraries as well as the internet; various public documents will
also be used as source of secondary information.
3.6 Methods of
data Collection
Both
primary and secondary generation methods will be employed in order to collect
adequate, precise and appropriate information for achievement of the objective
of the study.
3.6.1 Primary data collection methods
The
procedures will involve in collection of primary information which will
includes, interview schedule, questioner observation.
3.6.1.1. Interview
Is
a face-to-face interpersonal role
situation in which an interviewer asks respondents questions to elicit
answers pertinent to the research hypothesis Naoum,(1999). Interview schedule will involve in collection
of information through oral communication in face to face relationship between
the interviewer and the interviewees. In such technique both structured and
unstructured questions will be employed to collect information from heads of
sample households, government officials, businessmen, students, and ordinary
People.
Therefore,
Baker and Johnson, (1998); Dyer, (1995) and Kothari, (2004) state that
interview is desirable method of data collection since it is not an ordinary,
everyday conversation as it involves giving questions to interviewees through
oral or verbal communication or oral verbal stimuli that involved oral verbal
responses from informants.
3.6.1.2 Questionnaire
Questionnaires
is the written document containing statements or questions that are used to
obtain subject Perspectives values
attitudes and beliefs Onyango and Plews,(1999) Questionnaires of both closed
and open ended questions will be administered to collect information from the
respondents (heads of sample households or their representatives) as far as
Best and Kahn, (2006) is concern, questionnaire will be employed when factual
information or opinions rather than facts were desirable to be administered.
3.6.1.3 Observation
Marshal
and Rosman(1995) regard observation as a systematic recording of events
behavior and artifacts in social setting. Then, Krishnaswami, (2003) notes
observation as classical method of scientific enquiry. What respondents do may
differ from what they say they do thus; observation will be a reality check
during data collection since it records behaviors that otherwise might be taken
granted, expected or go unnoticed Moyles,( 2002) and Robson, (2002).Therefore,
observation method was also involved to assess causes of population and its
impacts on socio-economic development in the study area.
3.7.2 Secondary data collection methods
The
secondary data are those which have already by someone else and which have
already passed through the statistical process. Kothari (2004). The researcher
obtained secondary data from different published materials like books,
newspapers and journals.
3.8 Data Analysis
Strategies
Data
analysis as defined by Kothari (2004) is a process of editing, coding,
classifying and tabulating, data collected so that they are amenable.
Qualitative data verbally expressed
will be logically analyzed by following steps, identifying topics, clustering
topic into categories forming patterns from categories giving explanations from
the pattern and answering the researcher question by using explanation.
Therefore the investigation used content analysis and data analysis.
For quantitative data Microsoft
excel program will be used for data processing and analysis. Also pie chart
used to present data in descriptive statistic.
REFERENCES
Ambilikile C.M. (2004),
Economics for Advanced level paper two and professional studies, Afroplus
Industries Ltd, Dar es Salaam
Coale
AJ; Hoover EM, (1958 ) Population growth and economic development in low-income
countries: New Jersey, Princeton University PressHartl,
Http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Teacher(,3:00
pm 6 June 2015).
http://www.businessdictionary.com3:34pmNovember18,2015) http://www.businessdictionary.com 3:34pm November 18,2015)
John Eatwell, (1987,1989). Social
Economics: The New Palgrave,Arrow-page searchable links ,uk ,london
Kothari, C. R. (2004). Research
Methodology.Vikas publishing House Ltd, New Delhi, India.
Krishnaswami
.U (2003)Monsoon,New Delhi, India,. Farrar,
Straus and Giroux publishers, , New
Mexico and Asia
Malthus
T.R (1798)Principle of Population,England
Marshal.C
and a Rosman (1995)Designing qualitative research,
UK. London
Mwanje J.I ( 2001)Social Science Research,
Recent Training Manuals Salaam: The Adult Education
Press.
Smith (2000) Http:// www.Marriam
-Webster.com/../teacher (2:06Am 2015-06-17).
URT.(2003). Education
and Training Policy. Ministry of Education and Culture, Dar es
Wikipedia .org /wiki/teacher (June1:56Am 2015).
wikipedia.org August 7:18AM,
2015),wikipedia.org August 7:18AM, (2016) The ldon, (2002)Information Communication Technology Standardization....centre.uk.London
wikipedia.org August 7:18AM, 2015).
APPENDIX I
RESEARCH BUDGET
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APPENDIX II
RESEACHER TIME TABLE
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proposal |
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Data
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Research Writing and collection |
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Presentation
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APPENDIX III
Questionnaires to students
and ordinary people
My
name is MZOPOLA, Emiliana (sr) a student of Stella Maris Mtwara University
College pursuing Bachelor of Arts with Education (BAED). I am doing a research
on assessment on the relationship between population growth and socio-economic
development. The Case study of Mtwara Mikindani Municipality. This study has
the nature of academic purpose and not for political interest. This calls your
freedom to express your own view and I assure you that the information of our
conversation will be private and used for academic purpose only.
1. Personal details: put a tick on
corresponding option
Level
of education: standard seven (
)secondary ( )Certificate ( ) Diploma ( ) Bachelor Degree ( )
Gender: Male ( ) Female
( )
Age: 18-30years
( ) 31-45years ( ) 46 and above ( )
2.
What are the causes of population growth on the socio-economic development in
Mtwara
Mikindani municipality?
(
Taja sababu za ongezeko la watu katika halmashauri ya manispaa ya mtwara Mikindani?)
i.
………………………………………………………………………………………
ii.
…………………………………………………………………………………….
iii.
…………………………………………………………………………………….
iv.
…………………………………………………………………………………….
v.
…………………………………………………………………………
2.
What are the effects of
the problem of the population growth on the socio-economic development in
Mtwara Mikindani Municipality
(
Taja matokeo ya kijamii na kiuchumi yato kanayo na ongezeko la watu katika manispaa
ya Mtwara Mikindani?)
i.
……………………………………………………………………………………
ii.
……………………………………………………………………………………
iii.
……………………………………………………………………………………
iv.
……………………………………………………………………………………
v.
……………………………………………………………………………………
3.
What are the possible solutions relationship
between population growth and socio-economic development?
(
Taja njia zinazoweza kutumika ili kutatua tatizo la ongezeko la watu katika manispaa
ya Mtwara Mikindani?)
i.
........................................................................................................................................
ii.
........................................................................................................................................
iii.
........................................................................................................................................
iv.
…………………………………………………………………………………………
v.
………………………………………………………………………………………...
vi.
…………………………………………………………………………………………
Thank you for your cooperation
APPENDIX III
Interview
guidelines Questions to migr.jk,l,mhjtgation officer and head of the school.
My name is JUMANNE fatma a student of Stella
Maris Mtwara University College pursuing Bachelor of Arts with Education
(BAED). I am doing a research on assessment on the relationship between
population growth and socio-economic development. The Case study of Mtwara Mikindani
Municipality. This study has the nature of academic purpose and not for
political interest. This calls your freedom to express your own view and I
assure you that the information of our conversation will be private and used
for academic purpose only.
Personal details:
1.
i. Gender; Male ( )
Female ( )
ii.
Age;
18-30 years ( )
31-45 years ( )
46+ years ( )
2.
What are the causes of population growth
on the socio-economic development in Mtwara
Mikindani municipality?
3.
What are the effects of population
growth on the socio-economic development in Mtwara Mikindani?
4.
What are the effects of population growth on the socio ‑economic development in Mtwara MikindaniMunicipalty?
5.
What are the possible solutions
relationship between population growth and socio-economic
development?
CHAPTER FOUR
DATA PRESENTATION,
ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
4.0 Introduction
This
chapter involves presentation, analysis and discussion of major findings of the
study as information obtained from the field of study. The study aimed to
assess the impact of population increase to the local community’s social
economic development in Mtwara Mikindani Municipality. Data was corrected under
consideration of three specific research objectives which include;
a. To
identify the causes of population growth on social economic development in
Mtwara Mikindani Municiparity.
b. To
find out the effect of population growth on socio-economic development in
Mtwara Mikindani Municipality.
c. To
establish some possible solutions to the problem on the relationship between
population growth and social economic development in Mtwara Mikindani
Municipality.
The
presentation and discussion of findings in this chapter was done under four
major sections which are further subdivided into subsections in relations to
the objectives. The first section presents respondents characteristics, the
second sections deals with the causes of population growth on social economic
development, the third part deals with the effect of population growth in socio
economic development and the fourth part deals with the possible solution to
the problem on the relationship between population growth and socio economic
development.
4.1 Demographic
Information
4.1.1 Educational level
The
research findings show that in a sample 50 respondents their educational level
were summarized as standard seven were 10, form four were 25, form six were 5
degree level and above were 10. The figure4.1 shows the educational level of
respondents
Figure 4.1 A graph showing Education level of respondents
4.1.2 Gender Distribution
The
research findings show that in a sample of 50 respondents in the field, 28
respondents were male which accounts for 50% and 22were female which accounts
44%. The figure 4.2 shows the gender structure of respondents from the field of
study
Figure 4.2 A Pie Chart Showing Gender Distribution
4.1.3 Age structure
The
research findings show that in a sample of 50 respondents, their ages were
classified as;
Below
20 years were 20 which accounts for 40%, Between 21-40 years were 15 accounts
for 30%,and above 41 were15 accounts for 30%. The figure 4.3 shows the
information on the age structure of the respondents in the field.
Figure4.3 A pie chart Showing Age Structure
4.1.4 Marital status
The
research findings shows that the total number of respondents in the field was
50, from the data collected it shows that most of the respondents are not
married as compared to the respondents who are married as shown on the figure
below
Figure 4.4 A
Pie Chart Showing marital status of respondents
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